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Old 09-23-2008
 
#1141
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Golgo, I'm curious, do you suppose that we lost 20% of our accesible oil supply in the course of a single day? I think the short answer is "no." In that same vein, it is disingenuous of you to use a single day chart of what is obviously a commodity market pricing rally as proof for your theory of peak oil.
 
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Old 09-23-2008
 
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I never said nor implied that the single day movement in oil was a merely product of physical scarcity; I was merely showing fluctuation in price. Hell, it even says in the blurb that the falling dollar was a main component.

Oil takes forever to go down by 20 or 30 dollars and it all gets wiped out in 1 day. I think it should go without saying that as long as we continue to use the stuff, which will be for the forseeable future, the long term trend is going to be higher prices. Especially when you consider that a big factor in the decline in oil price was due to speculators shorting the market who subsequently got eaten alive for being dead wrong as the price readjusted.

And as far as peak oil goes, they theory is not mine so I can't take credit for it. The theory came out in the 50's during a major petroleum conference by Dr. Marion King Hubbert. While the details may vary as technology improves, the fundamentals behind the analysis holds true and insofar it has been the most accurate explanatory model of hydrocarbon depletion.
 

Last edited by Golgo 13; 09-23-2008 at 04:46 PM.
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Old 09-23-2008
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Golgo 13 View Post
Especially when you consider that a big factor in the decline in oil price was due to speculators shorting the market who subsequently got eaten alive for being dead wrong as the price readjusted.
You have absolutely no credible evidence to support a single assertion in this sentence.

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Old 09-23-2008
 
#1144
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FSA introduces short-selling ban

What do you think happens to short sellers and what they're shorting when their practice gets banned during their transactions? I know a trader that lost 10 grand in 2 hours after the ban. This was in a subject where people were warning that the government could intervene at any moment and prohibit short selling. The people that kept short selling didn't think it was gonna happen and they got eaten alive for being dead wrong. They actually thought the market would continue to be governed by BAU rules, even in the midst of a national emergency; not a good assumption. Not being able to short affects the market and the price adjusts accordingly.

This also raises the question of how the free market is going to solve these converging catastrophies since government is intervening in free markets and not allowing them to work.
 

Last edited by Golgo 13; 09-23-2008 at 06:36 PM.
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"The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight-of-hand that was ever invented. Banking was conceived in inequity and born in sin. But if you want to continue to be slaves of the bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let the bankers continue to create money and control credit."

- Josiah Charles, President of the Bank of England & 2nd richest man in Great Britain (1880-1941)
 

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Old 09-23-2008
 
#1145
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DM does the prospect of a catastrophe send you into orgasms of excitement? I get the feeling that if all things played out the way you have been predicting for the past few years, you'd be terribly excited.
 
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Old 09-23-2008
 
#1146
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There's a difference between seeing something coming and wanting something to happen.

I'd like nothing more than to be wrong. I like society, technology, cheap energy, strong currency, and a stable economy as much as the next man.

The only thing I stand to get out of all of this is "I told you so!" at best. Which rings pretty hollow given the situation at hand.
 
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"The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight-of-hand that was ever invented. Banking was conceived in inequity and born in sin. But if you want to continue to be slaves of the bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let the bankers continue to create money and control credit."

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Old 09-23-2008
 
#1147
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Golgo 13 View Post
FSA introduces short-selling ban

What do you think happens to short sellers and what they're shorting when their practice gets banned during their transactions? I know a trader that lost 10 grand in 2 hours after the ban. This was in a subject where people were warning that the government could intervene at any moment and prohibit short selling. The people that kept short selling didn't think it was gonna happen and they got eaten alive for being dead wrong. They actually thought the market would continue to be governed by BAU rules, even in the midst of a national emergency; not a good assumption. Not being able to short affects the market and the price adjusts accordingly.

This also raises the question of how the free market is going to solve these converging catastrophies since government is intervening in free markets and not allowing them to work.
Wow. This is old old news, Golgo. You do know that shorting financial stocks in the US in banned now too, don't you? The SEC has a list of some 799 companies. It all happened last Friday.

It's pretty fucked up, but I should point out that the ban doesn't interrupt anyone "during their transactions" since the ban took effect when markets were closed.
 
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Old 09-23-2008
 
#1148
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"During their strategies" would have probably been a more accurate description.

For example, say some guy plans on trading futures by sitting on the contract for awhile and reselling for a profit, and the government puts a stop to commodity speculation before he can sell off. He's screwed and has to take delivery.
 

Last edited by Golgo 13; 09-23-2008 at 10:27 PM.
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"The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight-of-hand that was ever invented. Banking was conceived in inequity and born in sin. But if you want to continue to be slaves of the bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let the bankers continue to create money and control credit."

- Josiah Charles, President of the Bank of England & 2nd richest man in Great Britain (1880-1941)
 

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Old 09-23-2008
 
#1149
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Push one thing down, another pops up somewhere else. The ban on short selling financials led to a piling in of longs on commodities.

October 2nd shorting financials will return and commodities will be overbought. This is going to heavily weight the entire market on the sell side.
 
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And according to this proper, and generally received meaning of the word, a free man, is he, that in those things, which by his strength and wit he is able to do, is not hindered to doe what he has a will to."

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So close... Yet so far.
 

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Old 09-26-2008
 
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First Presidential debate, tonight @ 9PM (est? central?) on most Local networks and all cable news networks.

Be there or be square!
 

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Old 09-26-2008
 
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These are not debates. They are demonstrations and performances intended to entertain the masses, not seriously discuss the issues. Real debate has not been seen in almost a hundred years.
 
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Old 09-26-2008
 
#1152
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dnt say i can't debate, you can say i don't know how to debate, but don't say i didn't giv it my all
 
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Old 09-26-2008
 
#1153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Philosoraptor View Post
These are not debates. They are demonstrations and performances intended to entertain the masses, not seriously discuss the issues. Real debate has not been seen in almost a hundred years.
A.) Provide a healthy chunk of the funding for production of this debate, and you might find you can call it whatever you like.

B.) I don't know what your personal definition of "debate" is, but what I'm watching differs from what you suggested they are (30 minutes before they were even scheduled to begin, I might add): point / counter-point, moderated debate of an arguably wide variety of the issues that I would expect a President to address.

Edit: What's that Brit Hume? A "spirited debate" you called it?
 

Last edited by Kaervek; 09-26-2008 at 10:36 PM.
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Old 09-28-2008
 
#1154
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Debates should not be moderated. Two minute expositions and 90 second rebuttals are ridiculous. These are highly artificial and staged. Nothing of real substance is presented.
 
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